Twelve Capital Event Update – 7 October 2019

Summary

There are currently no active storms in the Atlantic basin. Whilst some low-pressure areas are currently being monitored and might turn into tropical storms, they are not expected to cause a threat to populated areas.

In the North-East Pacific, there are currently no active storms or areas where tropical cyclone formation is likely over the next days.

In the West Pacific, there is currently one tropical storm system (named “Hagibis”) on approach towards Japan. Latest model indications show that this system will pass east of the main Japanese islands in around five days. As always, significant uncertainty with regards to track and intensity (currently a cat 3 hurricane) remain at this early stage and Twelve Capital will actively monitor the system.

Other recent events

There have been no noteworthy additional events in the past week. Whilst none of the recent events cause significant concern on an individual basis, some partial deductible erosion is possible in aggregate contracts, especially from typhoon Faxai. In Cat Bond transactions, this is already fully reflected in broker valuations. In Private ILS transactions, this is reflected through the fair valuation approach.

Monday, 7 October 2019