Twelve Capital Event Update

Event Update – Hurricane Milton

Hurricane Milton made landfall as a Category 3 storm overnight near Siesta Key in Sarasota County, Florida, avoiding the worst-case scenario of a northern or direct hit to Tampa as an even stronger Category 4 or above storm. At the time of writing, Milton is now a Category 1 storm passing over Central Florida ca. 50km south of Orlando, and is expected to move out into the Atlantic in the coming hours.

The weakening of Milton down to a Category 3 storm, and its more southerly path also mean that it avoided pushing historic levels of storm surge into Tampa Bay. Nevertheless, Milton is likely to cause significant impacts considering its large rainfall area as it moves across the state. BMS Group have reported industry loss estimate ranges of USD 15bn to USD 40bn, which were provided just before landfall. This loss range implies a slightly less impactful event than Hurricane Ian. Twelve Capital will assess both industry and ILS impacts in the coming days, as the damage across Florida becomes clearer.

The pictures below show the latest event track information for Hurricane Milton, as well as the pre-landfall storm surge forecast. The most impactful storm surge will be felt across coastal communities, with early reports of significant surge in Venice, Florida.

Source: NHC, Twelve Capital. As at 10 October 2024.

As this event is still ongoing, a more comprehensive summary of the event will be released tomorrow.

Twelve Capital continues to closely monitor relevant potential and actual catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on new major events that occur.