Twelve Capital Event Update
8 October 2024Hurricane Milton – 8 October 2024
The area of development in the Gulf of Mexico, mentioned in our event update on October 4th, turned into Hurricane Milton over the weekend.
Milton is currently located in the Gulf of Mexico just north of Merida,Yucutan travelling in a north-easterly direction. It is currently predicted by NOAAto make landfall into the western coast of Florida somewhere between Spring Hill and Fort Myers on Wednesday 9th October in the evening (local time) as a Major Hurricane.
The specific location of landfall, and ultimate strength of the storm, currently introduces a large uncertainty around the total size of the industry loss. Over the coming 48 hours the track and intensity are likely to move around, ahead of Milton making landfall. Windstrength, and particularly storm surge, are typically higher on the eastern/right-hand side of a hurricane, meaning that should the storm track south of Tampa, FL the expected losses would be lower than if it ends up at or slightly north of Tampa. We will provide updates on Hurricane Milton in due time.
Overnight, Milton passed by the Yucatan Peninsular, Mexico, as a Category 5 Storm. Given the current central pressure estimates and co-ordinates of the storm, it is not expected to trigger the IBRD Mexico Class C Notes, that are exposed to Atlantic hurricanes along the Mexico coastline, however the the risk cannot be ruled out entirely. As the event is still ongoing, and Milton is close to Mexico we will continue to monitor, and provide final confirmation in the next update.
Source: NOAA NHC 8 October 2024 (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032137.shtml?cone#contents)
Twelve Capital continues to closely monitor relevant potential and actual catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on new major events that occur.
