Twelve Capital Event Update – 14. September 2020

Hurricane situation
There are currently two systems in the Atlantic that are expected to make landfall in the next 48 hours. Tropical Storm Sally is currently tracking away from Western Florida towards the Central Gulf Coast, where it is expected to make landfall as a Category 1 Hurricane in southeast Louisiana. The exact location of its landfall is still uncertain, and as such, storm surge warnings are in effect along much of the Gulf coast, from southeast Louisiana across to the Alabama/Florida state border. Elsewhere, Hurricane Paulette, a Category 1 Hurricane, is expected to make landfall in Bermuda.

While these events are likely to cause dangerous storm surge and potential flooding, they are not forecast to develop into major hurricanes and neither are expected to have any significant impact on the ILS market.

Other events
Currently there are 29 major wildfires across California and 30 in Oregon that are in various stages of containment. There have been around 5,000 structures damaged in California and around 1,000 structures damaged in Oregon. This compares to more than 8,700 structures damaged during the 2017 wildfires. Whilst there is not yet any reliable information on industry losses, Twelve Capital is not unduly concerned with the level of damage given, as most Cat Bonds either do not cover wildfire risk or require multiple substantial events to trigger losses.

Specific updates on any relevant new major events that occur will be provided.