Twelve Capital Event Update

Event Update – Hurricane Milton

Hurricane Milton continues its progress through the Gulf of Mexico and is due to make landfall in West Central Florida overnight Wednesday, 9 October to Thursday, 10 October as a Major Hurricane.

Most of the forecasts predict that Milton will make landfall as a Category 3 or 4 storm, but the landfall location is still uncertain. As Hurricane Milton travels over the remaining 500km towards Florida, there are areas of windshear that are likely to cause some disruption to the hurricane, as well as alter its path. After landfall, Milton should weaken as it passes over land and out into the Atlantic, but there are likely to be elements of heavy rainfall and flooding in the northeast of Florida and potentially into Georgia.

Source: NOAA NHC. As at 9 October 2024 (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032332.shtml?cone#contents)

The storm surge as Milton makes landfall is likely to be significant, as can be seen by the latest forecast from NOAA. The surge will be more material on the eastern/right-hand side of the storm, so the specifc landfall location will determine ultimate levels of surge.

Source: NOAA NHC. As at 9 October 2024 (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032332.shtml?peakSurge#contents)

With the latest storm track forecast updates overnight, the consensus among forcasters has shifted predicting a slightly more southern landfall, just south of Tampa. While each hurricane is different, Milton’s shift southward increases the similarity to Hurricane Ian in 2022, also a Category 4 storm which made landfall in Fort Myers. The key differences in ultimate impact will be driven by the exact landfall location, the extent of the windfield and the storm surge footprint.

Please note; the next update on Hurricane Milton will be after landfall.